Following this summer’s continental championships in South America, North/Central America and Africa, FIFA have announced their updated world rankings. Still lying in 4th place, England are one of only two teams in the top 30 – the other being Belgium in top spot – to have maintained their place in the standings.
The new way football’s governing body ranks international sides was implemented last summer. The reformed system, one based on the ELO configuration which takes into account ‘football specific variables’, was rubber-stamped after over two years of statistical analysis, data collection and independent review.
But, of course, the merits of contemplating football via focus groups and think tanks are limited. The world rankings serve a purpose in that they create a formula by which FIFA can seed teams in international tournaments without being accused of corruption (although, given their squeaky-clean track record, I really can’t imagine why anyone ever think they are anything other than paragons of virtue). However, even in a footballing universe populated by seemingly endless ‘XG’ figures and ‘Opta’ Twitter accounts, one of the great lessons the sport teaches us is that there’s only so much you can learn from statistical data.
The best way to judge the opposition is simply to watch them play. What, then, can England learn from this summer’s continental tournaments?
The Copa America:
What would be the English preconception of Copa America held in Brazil? Sun, Samba and stepovers sounds about right. In reality, South America’s showpiece international tournament was nothing to write home about – so, naturally, that’s exactly what I’m going to do.
This isn’t to say there wasn’t a bevvy of compelling narratives to follow: Brazil were without their sensational headline act Neymar, who was sidelined with an ankle injury; Chile were hoping to become only the second nation in history to win three consecutive South American championships; and, of course, Lionel Messi was hoping to break Argentina’s continental final hoodoo, the 14-time winners having appeared in four of the previous five finals and lost all four. No, it was the quality of the football itself that left something to be desired – which, from an England point of view, bodes well.
Watching this tournament through my pair of spectacles emblazoned with the St. George’s cross, there was, in my opinion, and as frighteningly naïve as it might sound, relatively little to be overly troubled by. 12 teams entered the competition, and a relatively forgiving group stage format meant eight advanced to the quarterfinals: Paraguay, Venezuela, Uruguay and Colombia were all eliminated in the last eight; Argentina and Chile were semifinalists, finishing third and fourth respectively after the bronze medal match; Peru were the defeated finalists; Brazil finished as champions.
Paraguay: The first team to be eliminated in the knockout stages, losing on penalties to Brazil after the score was tied at 0-0 after 90 minutes (in the Copa America, there’s no extra-time until the semifinals). Paraguay played the last half an hour with ten men after Fabian Balbuena was sent off after bringing down Firmino as he was through on goal. They were resilient but, qualifying for the knockout stages as one of the best third-placed teams and having not won any of their four games in the competition, did nothing to suggest they’d be contenders on the biggest stage of all any time soon.
Venezuela: Finished second in a group containing the two finalists, Brazil and Peru, drawing 0-0 against both before a convincing win against Bolivia saw them through to the quarterfinals. Their exit came at the hands of an Argentina side which triumphed 2-0 but were not at all comfortable until they scored their second 15 minutes from time. The Paraguayans kept Messi quiet, forced several impressive saves from Armani, the Argentina goalkeeper, and, all in all, were probably the better side. The political situation in Venezuela at the moment is dire, nearly all of the news coming out of the country is, by necessity, negative. Their football team, however, gave the country something to be proud of. Venezuela have never qualified for a World Cup but, with a relatively young squad and strong spine to their team, they surely now have a chance.
Uruguay: Had a mixed tournament. In the group stages, they won their opening game 4-0 (although admittedly against a very poor Ecuador) and squeezed past a terrific Chile but could only muster a draw against Japan (one of the tournament’s ‘invited’ nations). In their one and only knockout stage game, they were lacklustre, losing on penalties to Peru in one of three quarter-finals that finished scoreless. Other than Brazil, Uruguay are the closest South American team to England in the FIFA world rankings. While they do have some excellent young talent in the shape of Juventus’s Bentancur, Arsenal’s Lucas Torreira and Federico Valverde of Real Madrid, it is no secret the core of their team is aging. Captain Diego Godin, one of Europe’s best centre-halves over the past five to ten years is 33, Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez, Uruguay’s talismanic strike partnership, are both 32. This trio has over 350 caps between them. Their leadership, not to mention their goals (Suarez and Cavani are the nation’s all-time leading goal scorers), will be nigh on impossible to replace. Given that the next possible competitive meeting between Uruguay and England is in three years, it’s hard to see them posing the same threat as they have over the past decade or so.
Colombia: Remember this lovely bunch? Thought so. Colombia can feel aggrieved to have been knocked out of the Copa America despite not conceding a goal. They easily overcame Qatar (the other ‘invited’ nation), Paraguay and, more impressively, Argentina in the group stages before eventually losing on penalties after a predictably heated clash with Chile. We all know what kind of opposition Colombia are currently, but it’s hard to predict how they will fare in future – they have a solid and pretty young defensive base, with both Yerry Mina and Davinson Sanchez playing in the Premier League, but a number of their most influential players will presumably be past their best by that stage, James Rodriguez and Radamel Falcao being the most obvious examples.
Chile: Three consecutive Copa America triumphs was a big ask. They made it to the semifinals but looked a tired team, too old still to be employing the same pressing game instilled by Marcelo Bielsa and Jorge Sampaoli. Their preferred starting 11 features six players with 100+ caps, showing the age of their team. Chile’s golden generation are another team past their brilliant best.
Argentina: Where to start. Finished third in the end but were, in fact, lucky to advance from the group stages after Paraguay missed a penalty which would have put them above their Argentine rivals. Their best performance came in their 2-0 defeat in the semi-final to Brazil in which they were frustrated by VAR decisions and twice hit the woodwork. Other than this, though, their performances were pretty turgid. Messi was as poor as I’ve seen him, and their defence routinely looks undisciplined and unorganised. There’s some hope for them in the shape of Lautaro Martinez, Giovani Lo Celso and Juan Foyth, all of whom had good tournaments. Argentina’s plight in recent years hasn’t been due to a lack of talent – players like Mauro Icardi can’t even make the squad – so who knows whether they will find a way to make it work. It’s assumed that interim coach Lionel Scaloni will soon be replaced; perhaps the next manager will be the one to solve the puzzle. But somehow I doubt it.
Peru: Fantastic team, brilliantly managed. Ricardo Gareca got the very best from a squad not exactly brimming with household names. Paolo Guerrero, striker, captain and record goalscorer, was inspirational. Goalkeeper Pedro Gallese too was magnificent, especially in the sensational 3-0 victory over Peru’s neighbours Chile in the semi-final. They showed remarkable mental strength and tactical intelligence to run Brazil close in the final despite having been roundly trounced by the same opposition 5-0 in the group stages. Having reached their first World Cup finals in nearly 40 years last summer, Peru are a team on the up and definitely one to be wary of.
Brazil: The winners on home soil. Deservedly so, probably. Their keeper, Liverpool’s Alisson, went nearly the entire tournament without conceding a goal before Guerrero’s penalty flew past him in the final. The big story coming into the competition was the absence of Neymar – he was replaced, initially by David Neres of Ajax, and latterly by Everton of Gremio, the only home-based player for the home nation, and he was superb. In the final, Jesus wept. Literally. The Manchester City striker was in floods of tears after being sent off for a dubious second yellow after scoring one and setting up another. He was magnificent throughout the knockout stages and made a case for winning the Golden Ball. That honour ultimately went to 36-year-old Dani Alves. The quasi-right back looked a player ten years his junior – his role in Brazil’s opener against Argentina, in particular, was something to behold, storming through the Argentina midfield like a freight train before putting Paredes on the floor with a dummy and playing a clever pass inside the opposition fullback for Firmino to set up Gabriel Jesus to finish. Whether Brazil’s emotional investment will serve them well against much stronger opposition remains to be seen; the pressure exerted on their players from the fans is crippling— you can feel it through the television screen. The manager, Tite, might be the perfect counterbalance to this, however. His is an inherently calm presence. As the Brazilian fans and player characteristically belted out the national anthem before the final, Tite stood silent with his eyes tight shut, looking almost as though lost in a moment of religious ecstasy. This tournament will have done wonders to fix the disconnect between Brazilian players and supporters. They’re always a force to be reckoned with, but riding the crest of this Copa America wave, even more so.
So that’s the best South America has to offer. What else did we learn? The use of VAR was horrific, seeing seven-plus minutes of added time was commonplace and there was a huge amount of controversy in its application (see Messi’s CONMEBOL corruption allegations). The circus was made easier to bear by Premiersport’s commentator Paul Dempsey’s hilarious and undisguised disgust with the situation. English players, by far, have been the nation least used to seeing VAR in action – Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Brazil, Argentina, the list could go on, have all had it in their domestic leagues for one or two seasons now. But that’s a story for a different article. There were empty seats, too. Lots of them, in fact. Many fans complained they’d been priced out of the competition, leading to poorer atmospheres than you might expect, even at footballing coliseums like the Maracanã. Another mistake by one of football’s governing bodies. Shock.
So how would England fare against this kind of opposition? Which sides would cause England the most problems? Brazil, Peru and Colombia, probably. The biggest takeaway from the Copa America, however: the main threats to England remain within Europe.
The African Cup of Nations:
This year’s African Cup of Nations, hosted by Egypt at the last minute after Cameroon’s failure to meet the required infrastructure standards, was a sensational affair. The hosts themselves, however, favourites before the tournament, flopped, and don’t get a look-in on this list.
Firstly, Madagascar’s story is incredible. The island nation doesn’t exactly have a rich football heritage; this was the first time they had ever qualified for the continental competition. Despite this they topped their group, beating Nigeria on the way, and reached the quarter-finals where their run came to an end. It was an amazing story, the kind that makes this continental tournament consistently appealing.
Three of the competition’s last four, Algeria, Senegal and Nigeria looked dangerous and tactically adept potential opponents. The other semi-finalists, Tunisia, whom England fans will be familiar with after last summer’s World Cup, won only one of their seven games and did not look particularly impressive despite reaching the latter stages of the competition. The Ivory Coast, who seem to have had a consistently excellent squad over the past 15 years, were also impressive.
Ivory Coast: It might not quite be the squad of Drogba and the Touré brothers, but this current generation are no slouches, either. Nicolas Pépé, Serge Aurier and Wilfried Zaha all played prominent roles for them this year, players who would get in most international teams anywhere in the world. Despite this they could only manage 2nd place in the group stage, losing out to Morocco. They then had a more comfortable victory over Mali than the scoreline suggested before losing to the eventual champions, Algeria, on penalties in the round of 16. Had they progressed, there’s a strong possibility they would have gone on to win the tournament given their record against the remaining sides at that point.
Nigeria: Gernot Rohr’s side had a number of standout performers this summer: Odion Ighalo finished as the tournament’s top scorer, Leicester’s Wilfred Ndidi was a constant nuisance to defenders and John Obi Mikel was still controlling things in midfield as though he were 25. However, when South Africa dumped Egypt out in the quarterfinals, Nigeria immediately became favourites. They’ll have been very disappointed not to win the competition. They have a number of older players, but many young talents too – Nigeria are one of those international sides who always seem to have a relatively reliable pipeline of talent which can sustain them. It’s safe, therefore, to assume Nigeria will be a dangerous opponent at a World Cup.
Senegal: Vanquished finalists in one of the most bizarre tournament showpieces you’ll ever see (more on that later), Aliou Cisse’s team lived up to their post-World Cup hype. Kalidiou Koulibaly, Idrissa Gana Gueye, Sadio Mane: they had probably the best all-round squad in the competition. Mane scored three times – he also missed three penalties – but Senegal’s main man took a back seat to the likes of Keita Baldé and Ismaïla Sarr, proving the nation are by no means a one-man team. They’ll be heartbroken after this AFCON, but I’ve no doubt they’ll be back.
Algeria: Algeria: the 2019 Cup of Nations champions. In the final, they had just one shot and their only goal came in the third minute from one of the most massively deflected goals you’ll ever see—in fact calling it a ‘deflection’ somehow doesn’t do it justice (look it up on YouTube if you’re yet to see it). Despite riding their luck somewhat in the final itself, their route to it was hard-fought; they beat Mali, Ivory Coast and Nigeria, three of the tournament’s most-fancied sides. Like Mane for Senegal, Mahrez had a decent tournament, his 95th-minute semifinal free-kick winner being the highlight but he was only their third or fourth-best player throughout the tournament. Ismaël Bennacer won both Player and Young Player of the Tournament and Napoli’s Adam Ounas was also excellent. In the end, Djamel Belmadi’s men were deserved winners and, at this time, look like the best Africa has to offer on the world stage.
The CONCACAF Gold Cup:
To call the Caribbean, Central and North America’s premier international tournament an after-thought might be a bit strong, but with reference to the quality on display in this year’s tournament, it’s hard not to dismiss it. The eight-time winners Mexico were again successful, defeating the United States in the final. These two teams, along with Haiti, surprisingly, make up a shortlist of potentially dangerous CONCACAF opponents for England in the next few years.
Haiti: I won’t lie, my knowledge of Haitian football is extremely limited. I can’t say with any degree of confidence whether their tournament showing was a freak performance or not, but they were superb throughout. They won all three of their group stage games and scored three times against Canada before losing out in extra time to the eventual champions, Mexico. On this evidence, the semifinalists would prove tricky opposition for any team.
USA: In what was effectively a home tournament for USA (15 of 17 the stadia were in the States), Grett Berhalter were free-scoring, netting 15 times in six games before their defeat in the final. Christian Pulisic was named Young Player of the Tournament – the Chelsea signing dazzled in the semifinal, in particular, scoring twice and assisting another. However mocked it is, the MLS’s advancements in recent years are indisputable and this has aided the national team no end. The US didn’t qualify for the World Cup last time around but expect to see them return stronger in 2022.
Mexico: In Chicago, a young Mexico side would eventually triumph 1-0 over the United States in an almost relentlessly drab tournament decider. Before that encounter, in the semifinal, Mexico just about saw off a stubborn Haiti side and overcame Costa Rica on penalties in the previous quarter-final fixture. In the group stage, they looked considerably more impressive, albeit against weaker opposition – they put seven past Cuba and in total scored 13 times in three games. Prior to the start of the tournament, PSV’s Hirving Lozano, arguably Mexico’s star player, was ruled out through injury, as was Miguel Layun who has over 70 caps for his country. The absence of these key players combined with the fact that Mexico are very much in the middle of a transitionary period makes their CONCACAF success a great deal more impressive. Uriel Antuna was magnificent in his first international tournament while Edson Álvarez, a recent Ajax recruit, sparkled in defence. It was also no great surprise to see Wolves’ Raúl Jiménez named player of the tournament. The United States are on the rise, but Mexico remained far-and-away the best team in this tournament.
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